In Abu Dhabi, a problem harking back to previous instances takes place, with two of essentially the most profitable groups in Method 1 as soon as once more battling for the world title. McLaren begins with the calm of a group managing a 21-point lead, whereas Ferrari is pressured to realize a double podium, hoping that the rivals from Woking don’t get too shut. The Scuderia finds motivation within the warmth and the tires, but additionally clings to assist from Max Verstappen.
“On paper, we’re most likely in a greater place for varied elements, together with temperatures and the structure of the monitor,” says Frederic Vasseur, simply days earlier than the decisive race. Abu Dhabi presents itself as a extra ‘impartial’ circuit in comparison with the final two, with Las Vegas suiting Ferrari’s traits extra, whereas Qatar performed to McLaren’s strengths. The Yas Marina circuit options some gradual, 90-degree corners, corresponding to corners 12, 16, or the 6-7 chicane, that are favored by a Ferrari with wonderful mechanical grip and good traction from low speeds. Then again, corners of medium velocity and lengthy turns, corresponding to 5 or the double 13-14, in addition to the lengthy and quick nook 9, are extra suited to McLaren’s preferences.
Abu Dhabi can also be notable for its lengthy straights, which can penalize much less highly effective energy items nearing the tip of their lifespan. Total, the monitor requires a medium aerodynamic load setup, permitting McLaren to reintroduce their new and distinctive rear wing, which was first launched through the Brazilian Grand Prix. Ferrari, then again, is counting on the brand new ground that confirmed constructive leads to Qatar on Leclerc’s automotive, producing nice curiosity to see if the Scuderia can handle the logistical and monetary problem of bringing a second model of this ground to Carlos Sainz’s automotive.
The design of the circuit would be the place to begin, however the 2024 Method 1 season has taught us that tires, asphalt, and environmental circumstances could make a fair larger distinction. On this regard, Ferrari celebrates the return of the softer Pirelli tire compounds, C3, C4, and C5, that are the other of the tougher compounds utilized in Qatar, which Ferrari struggled with. The asphalt right here has larger grip and, above all, extra abrasiveness in comparison with Lusail’s, rushing up tire hysteresis. In different phrases, the tires warmth up quicker because of the larger micro-deformations in touch with the bottom, a course of that generates warmth. That is a facet that, on paper, mitigates Ferrari’s difficulties in getting ready the tires for a flying lap.
In Abu Dhabi, qualifying and the race are held at night time, however the monitor temperatures ought to nonetheless exceed 30°C, a full 10°C larger than these recorded in Qatar. The window of operation for the vehicles shifts towards larger temperatures, a change that additionally favors Ferrari. Moreover, as already occurred in Lusail, the primary and third free apply periods happen earlier than sundown, with a subsequent cooling of the monitor for qualifying and the race. In Qatar, the ground-effect Method 1 vehicles already confirmed excessive sensitivity to this issue, with monitor evolution tending to shift the steadiness towards the rear. In Abu Dhabi, the anticipated temperature drop is as a lot as 10°C, greater than double that skilled within the final race, presenting an extra problem find the proper setup.
Each groups want an ideal execution of the weekend to be topped champions, beginning with the administration of qualifying. In 2023, the gaps have been extraordinarily slender, with 15 drivers inside four-tenths of a second, resulting in the surprising elimination of Carlos Sainz in Q1. Managing site visitors is essential, because the tight third sector tends to create lengthy queues, risking cooling down the tires of these making an attempt a flying lap, a state of affairs just like Monaco.
The race tempo, then again, is restricted each by entrance tire put on and rear tire degradation, not significantly favoring Ferrari or McLaren. “Flip 9 is lengthy and high-speed, so will probably be essential for entrance tire administration,” defined Simone Berra, Pirelli’s Chief Engineer, simply hours earlier than the beginning in 2023. “The important thing can be managing overheating within the third sector, together with the exit from the 6-7 chicane that separates the 2 straights. Rear tire temperatures, if saved beneath management, could make the distinction in sustaining efficiency.”
The Qatar race was freed from the scary graining points, which, nonetheless, have been seen on the appropriate entrance tire within the final race in Abu Dhabi. This problem is troubling McLaren, as Lando Norris just lately commented: “On some tracks which might be extra rear-limited, these issues don’t seem, however we’ve all the time been one of many worst groups for entrance tire graining. When now we have it, we’re not the quickest, however as quickly because it goes away, the scenario modifications.” One other variable is the variety of pit stops, with simulations predicting related race instances between one or two stops. The technique could possibly be decided by site visitors or by somebody desperately attempting to combine up plans to strive one thing completely different.
The result of the world championship battle between Ferrari and McLaren can even depend upon the third events. Max Verstappen and Crimson Bull stand out, with the potential to be aggressive, particularly on a flying lap and at the beginning, offered they will repeat the troublesome job of hitting the proper window for the RB20’s efficiency. Mercedes, in the meantime, begins barely behind after struggling in Qatar. The Silver Arrows face larger temperatures and a important third sector for the rear tires, points that don’t assist the W15. Nevertheless, the superbly levelled asphalt will enable the automotive to work in a low and stiff configuration, which fits Mercedes effectively.
The dedication of the midfield groups shouldn’t be underestimated both, with Alpine, Haas, and Racing Bulls engaged in a fierce battle for sixth place within the constructors’ standings. As with Ferrari, the warmth and the monitor breathe new life right into a Haas that struggled within the Qatar corners, however the absence of bumps and undulations will assist Alpine as soon as once more decrease its journey peak, highlighting the strengths of the automotive. All of the components for an thrilling present are there, however regardless of the end result, the Abu Dhabi race can be a historic verdict.
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