We’d begin to get some nice used electrical automotive offers beginning in 2026 as EV lease returns are anticipated to surge in an enormous method.
Whereas the EV revolution has been occurring for over a decade now, the used EV market remains to be fairly immature as a result of EVs have solely been delivered in giant volumes for the previous couple of years.
2026. That’s going to be the yr of the used EV.
J.D. Energy is out with a brand new report that states an anticipated 230% improve in electrical automobile lease return in 2026:
Lease volumes for brand new EVs surged 355% all through 2023 and 88% via September 2024. Franchise-only (excluding Tesla) EV lease volumes had been even larger, rising 438% all through 2023 and 109% via September 2024. Consequently, returning EV lease volumes are projected to dip barely in 2025 earlier than spiking 230% in 2026. This development runs counter to what’s taking place industry-wide the place whole lease volumes for gas-powered autos have been decrease than pre-pandemic ranges, creating a probable scarcity in used-vehicle availability in 2025 and 2026.
After projections for a roughly flat yr in 2025, the report expects a large improve in 2026 based mostly on present lease information:
The rationale for the surge is sort of easy. The extremely reported “lease loophole” to get entry to the tax credit score has resulted in a surge of EV leases:
Due largely to a provision within the federal Clear Automobile Tax Credit score, which permits auto sellers to cross alongside a $7,500 tax credit score to all EV lessees, almost half (46%) of all franchise EV gross sales and 21% of whole EV gross sales (together with Tesla) in 2023 had been leases. That development continued all through the primary 9 months of 2024, with the lease share of whole franchise and Tesla EV quantity reaching 30%. In the meantime, lease volumes for gas-powered autos have been decrease than pre-pandemic ranges. Business-wide, simply 2.4 million gas-powered autos had been leased in 2023. Whereas that represents a 17% improve from 2022, it’s nonetheless significantly decrease than the pre-pandemic common of greater than three million leases yearly, which is able to seemingly create a scarcity in used-vehicle availability in 2025 and 2026.
Whereas a few of these leasers are going to maintain their autos, many are going to provide them again and improve, leading to a surge of used EVs obtainable on the market.
Used EV costs have already come down enormously, partly because of Tesla slashing costs to ensure that demand to maintain up in opposition to its quickly rising manufacturing capability between 2020-2023.
Now, these contemporary “new” used EVs to hit the market in 2026 are seemingly going to place a number of strain on used EV costs.
Electrek’s Take
I’m excited for extra mature used automotive markets even when it implies that EV worth will drop in 2026.
Most individuals purchase used vehicles and thus far, they’ve been fairly restricted of their EV choices. It does sound like 2026 would be the yr when the used EV market will develop into one thing extra impactful, and lower-income folks will have the ability to get off of fuel.
It’s going to be an enormous step within the EV revolution.
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