The engines have turned off. The 2024 Method 1 season, the longest within the historical past of this motorsport self-discipline with 24 occasions over 10 months, concluded final weekend with the ultimate occasion of the season in Abu Dhabi and a post-season testing session on the 5.281-kilometre Yas Marina Circuit on Yas Island.
The just-concluded Method 1 championship was one of the aggressive in current many years, actually within the so-called turbo-hybrid period, which began with Mercedes’ dominance in 2014, adopted by Crimson Bull and Max Verstappen’s dominance.
Turning our backs on the current previous, the eight consecutive constructors’ titles received by the Mercedes group till 2021 won’t be remembered as among the many best in Method 1 historical past. Mercedes basically had no rivals, besides maybe within the closing 12 months when the drivers’ championship went to Max Verstappen in 2021. The identical could be stated for the 2022 and 2023 Method 1 seasons, which, because of the change in laws, noticed the dominance of the Austrian group.
The just lately concluded season, nonetheless, noticed an actual battle between a number of contenders, each on the drivers’ entrance however much more so on the constructors’ aspect. Lando Norris tried to “disturb” Max Verstappen within the race for his fourth Method 1 world title, whereas Ferrari and McLaren succeeded, within the not simple or predictable achievement in bridging the hole that Crimson Bull had amassed within the first a part of the season and ultimately surpassing the reigning world champions. The ultimate hole between McLaren, which ended the championship with 666 factors, and Ferrari, who scored 652, was simply 14 factors on the finish the Abu Dhabi race.
Fourteen factors out of 24 Grand Prix means lower than one level per race, and contemplating the six dash races that awarded factors, lower than half some extent per occasion. If we wish to quantify it in a different way, 14 factors is a 3rd place, or a 4th and a ninth place extra, or a fifth and an eighth place extra, and so forth.
Trying on the information from the final 10 years, it may be seen that the common factors distinction between the successful group of the constructors’ championship and the second-place group is over 200 factors, 208 to be exact. The very best peak was final 12 months, with Crimson Bull outscoring Mercedes by a staggering 451 factors, whereas the smallest hole, after this 12 months’s, was in 2021 with an in depth 28-point hole between Mercedes in P1 and Crimson Bull in P2.
With these concerns in thoughts, the main target now turns to subsequent 12 months. The 2025 Method 1 season will characteristic a really steady technical and sporting regulation that ought to guarantee additional tightening of the on-track competitors.
The world champion group, given the fixed development all through the just lately concluded season, ought to have the ability to simply stay among the many prime spots within the standings. Stability within the driver lineup may then assist McLaren keep extra continuity. Ferrari, the second power this 12 months, can depend on the emotional increase tied to the arrival of Lewis Hamilton and the truth that, beneath group principal Frederic Vasseur’s management, they’ve discovered a growth continuity that had all the time been lacking in earlier years.
For Crimson Bull, there are two uncertainties: on one hand, the motive force pairing, whether or not they determine to proceed with Sergio Perez or change to Liam Lawson, may not be on paper on the similar degree as McLaren’s and Ferrari’s driver pairs. Moreover, from a technical standpoint, the lack of Adrian Newey and the “misplaced path” within the 2024 developments could possibly be one other vital level waiting for 2025.
Mercedes deserves a separate chapter. The technical disaster is deep and lasting. The difficulties in understanding the automobile and the proper path for developments may resurface subsequent 12 months. Much like Crimson Bull, the arrival of a really younger driver could possibly be a vital level when in comparison with this 12 months’s prime two groups and their driver pairings.
For the 2025 Method 1 constructors’ championship title, we don’t see how some other group may break in, given the outcomes of this 12 months and likewise contemplating the motive force lineup, which is actually not on par—with all due respect—with that of McLaren and Ferrari.
Subsequently, it appears to be like like a two-way struggle for the constructors’ title between McLaren and Ferrari. It’s probably however not sure, given what Method 1 teaches us, particularly this 12 months. Should you keep in mind, after the primary 4 races this 12 months, the championship appeared already determined in Crimson Bull’s favor. As everyone knows, issues turned out in a different way. It also needs to be added that in 2025, developments in the course of the 12 months might be “conditioned” by the 2026 undertaking, which is able to characteristic a serious regulation change, so a part of the season must be “sacrificed” to keep away from arriving unprepared for the next one.
For now, our F1 prediction, with the engines of the 2024 Method 1 World Championship simply turned off, predicts McLaren and Ferrari will nonetheless be forward of Crimson Bull and Mercedes.
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