The 2-day Pirelli check for the event of 2026 tires has concluded in Barcelona. The session featured the 2023 McLaren and the 2024 Ferrari in a particular configuration to duplicate the anticipated aerodynamic load underneath the upcoming laws, which will probably be 15% decrease than the present one. Evaluating the lap occasions with these from the latest Spanish Grand Prix qualifying might sound logical, however paradoxically, the over 3-second deficit truly strengthens expectations that efficiency will probably be very shut between the 2 generations of automobiles. Right here’s why.
The Comparability
The quickest lap of the session was set by Charles Leclerc, whose 1’14’’971 was 3.2 seconds slower than his greatest time within the final Spanish Grand Prix qualifying, regardless of utilizing the identical automobile however with wider tires and considerably larger aerodynamic load. Nonetheless, a fairer comparability for 2026 needs to be with the primary 12 months of ground-effect laws, 2022. A direct comparability is not possible, as on the time, Barcelona nonetheless used the outdated circuit structure, together with the ultimate chicane.
Over the previous three years, lap occasions have usually improved by 1.5 seconds, with some variations relying on the monitor, making it doable to approximate the very best lap from the newest Pirelli check as being 1.5 to 2 seconds slower than 2022 efficiency. Nonetheless, this stays a tough estimate that wants correct context, contemplating variations in environmental situations and, most significantly, testing packages. Moreover, as is customary in Barcelona, Pirelli examined the toughest compounds of the longer term 2026 vary—C1, C2, and C3—however it’s unclear whether or not Charles Leclerc’s lap was set on the softest accessible compound, though that’s probably.
The Non-Simulatable Elements
Efficiency variations between present and future automobiles won’t be uniform throughout all tracks. Excessive-downforce circuits like Barcelona will penalize the lower-downforce 2026 automobiles essentially the most, whereas on different tracks, they are going to be nearer to present lap occasions. Lowering aerodynamic load by 15% just isn’t sufficient to totally replicate the traits of the next-generation F1 automobiles, which will probably be considerably quicker on the straights, even with out contemplating the twin energetic aerodynamics on the entrance and rear. The general width will lower from 2 to 1.9 meters, bettering aerodynamic effectivity, however extra importantly, ground-effect efficiency will probably be lowered. At present, the ground generates extreme downforce on the straights, resulting in pointless drag. “Right this moment, aerodynamic load comes primarily from the ground. The quicker you go, the extra downforce you generate, to the purpose the place it paradoxically turns into ineffective on the straights,” defined Mario Isola.
On high of this, the minimal weight may even be lowered, with the next-generation automobiles anticipated to be about 30 kg lighter. The narrower tires used within the newest Pirelli check saved 4-5 kg, together with a couple of kilograms faraway from different components of the automobile. Nonetheless, it’s unknown how a lot Ferrari and McLaren have been capable of lighten their automobiles, given the present challenges in even reaching the 798 kg minimal weight. This implies further lap time variations in an estimated comparability with precise 2026 automobiles.
Total, the state of affairs doesn’t seem alarming. Quite the opposite, when correctly contextualized, the Barcelona lap occasions lend credibility to Nikolas Tombazis’ assertion from final November: “Relating to lap occasions, we count on them to be very near these of this era of automobiles.” Nonetheless, the efficiency of the brand new energy models stays the largest unknown within the equation of the brand new laws.
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